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June 12, 2019

ERCOT meteorologist predicts cooler summer, no chance of record heat

by Kelso King, Grid Monitor
Source – Grid Monitor
Posted 06/11/2019

ERCOT Senior Meteorologist, Chris Coleman provided a 2019 summer weather update. He noted that 2018 was the sixth hottest summer in Texas since 1895 based on average temperature but only the 27th hottest for maximum temperature, adding that 2011 was by far the hottest. Mr. Coleman noted that 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2015 appear to be similar to 2019.

Mr. Coleman considered expectations for summer 2019 based on summers since 2000. In the table below, the years shown in red are among the hottest on record.

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT’s meteorologist noted that May 1, 2018 through April 30, 2019 was the wettest 12-month period on record in the U.S. and 9th wettest in Texas, adding that precipitation suppresses heat to some extent.

Mr. Coleman noted that there have been a record-breaking number of tornadoes across the U.S. this year, due in part to the jet stream being more active and further south than usual.

Mr. Coleman suggested that the best chances for above normal temperatures for summer 2019 are in Far West Texas, Austin and San Antonio but this is unlikely to be as hot as last summer, with fewer days over 100°. Mr. Coleman stated that there is no chance of another record-breaking summer like 2011, which exhibited completely different conditions.

The forecast does not support widespread drought returning this summer, although South and Southwest Texas are more likely to see a drier than normal summer.

Mr. Coleman reported that an El Niño is in place and is expected to continue through the summer season. This could limit the 2019 hurricane season but Atlantic temperatures are warmer than normal, which tends to support an active hurricane season.

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